上消化道出血患者内镜治疗后再出血的影响因素分析
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1.亳州市中医院 重症医学科,安徽 亳州 236800;2.亳州市中医院 消化内科, 安徽 亳州 236800;3.亳州市人民医院 消化内科,安徽 亳州 236800

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李松明,E-mail:moqiong1988@163.com

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Analysis of influencing factors on rebleeding in patients with upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage after endoscopic treatment
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1.Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Bozhou Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Bozhou, Anhui 236800, China;2.Department of Gastroenterology, Bozhou Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Bozhou, Anhui 236800, China;3.Department of Gastroenterology, Bozhou People's Hospital, Bozhou, Anhui 236800, China

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    摘要:

    目的 探讨经内镜治疗的上消化道出血(UGIH)患者再出血的高危因素及预防策略,并构建预测模型。方法 选取2020年1月-2023年12月该院收治的97例经内镜治疗后再出血的UGIH患者作为观察组,另选取178例同期收治的内镜治疗后未再出血的UGIH患者作为对照组,两组内镜治疗后随访时间均为1年。比较两组患者临床资料,采用多因素Logistic回归模型,分析UGIH患者内镜治疗后再出血的高危因素,并构建预测模型,绘制受试者操作特征曲线(ROC curve),分析该模型对UGIH患者内镜治疗后再出血的预测价值。结果 观察组肝硬化、休克、内镜下活动性出血、Forrest分级为Ⅰa至Ⅰb级、血红蛋白水平 ≤ 90 g/L和血小板水平≤100×109/L的患者占比分别为55.67%、14.43%、37.11%、62.89%、23.71%和23.71%,高于对照组的41.57%、2.25%、18.54%、44.38%、3.37%和7.87%,血清D-二聚体(D-D)水平高于对照组,出血量多于对照组,凝血酶原时间(PT)长于对照组(P < 0.05)。多因素Logistic回归模型分析显示,肝硬化(OR^ = 2.423,95%CI:1.124~5.224)、休克(OR^ = 6.897,95%CI:1.487~31.995)、内镜下活动性出血(OR^ = 2.604,95%CI:1.109~6.118)、Forrest分级为Ⅰa至Ⅰb级(OR^ = 2.494,95%CI:1.162~5.354)、血红蛋白水平 ≤ 90 g/L(OR^ = 5.270,95%CI:1.797~15.442)、血小板水平 ≤ 100×109/L(OR^ = 5.018,95%CI:1.733~14.531)、出血量 > 189.61 mL(OR^ = 1.025,95%CI:1.016~1.034)和PT > 15.99 s(OR^ = 1.996,95%CI:1.618~2.460)均为UGIH患者内镜治疗后再出血的独立危险因素(P < 0.05)。回归方程模型:logit(P) = -18.551 + 肝硬化×0.885+休克×1.931+内镜下活动性出血×0.957+Forrest分级×0.914 + 血红蛋白水平×1.662 + 血小板水平×1.613 + 出血量×0.025 + PT×0.691。预测UGIH患者内镜治疗后再出血的ROC curve按照诊断概率logit(P)进行绘制,当logit(P) > 0.30时,95%CI为0.891~0.955,诊断敏感度及特异度分别为88.66%和83.15%,曲线下面积(AUC)为0.923。结论 肝硬化、休克、内镜下活动性出血、Forrest分级为Ⅰa至Ⅰb级、血红蛋白水平≤90 g/L、血小板水平≤100×l09/L、出血量 > 189.61 mL和PT > 15.99 s为UGIH患者内镜治疗后再出血的独立危险因素,据此构建的模型预测价值较高,临床可据此针对高危患者给予个性化的干预及处理,以减少或避免再出血的发生。

    Abstract:

    Objective To explore the high-risk factors and prevention strategies for rebleeding in patients with upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage (UGIH) treated with endoscopy, and construct a predictive model.Methods 97 patients with UGIH who experienced rebleeding after endoscopic treatment from January 2020 to December 2023 were selected as the observation group, and another 178 patients with UGIH who did not experience rebleeding after endoscopic treatment admitted during the same period were selected as the control group, both groups were followed up for 1 year after endoscopic treatment. Clinical data of the two groups was compared, the high-risk factors for rebleeding after endoscopic treatment in patients with UGIH were analyzed by multivariate Logistic regression analysis, a predictive model was constructed, and the predictive value of the model for rebleeding after endoscopic treatment in patients with UGIH was analyzed by plotting a receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) to analyze.Results The proportions of patients in the observation group with liver cirrhosis, shock, endoscopic active bleeding, Forrest classification of Ia to Ib, level of blood hemoglobin ≤ 90 g/L, and level of blood platelet ≤ 100 × 109/L were 55.67%, 14.43%, 37.11%, 62.89%, 23.71%, and 23.71%, respectively, which were higher than the control group's 41.57%, 2.25%, 18.54%, 44.38%, 3.37%, and 7.87%. The level of serum D-dimer (D-D) of the observation group was higher than that of the control group, and the bleeding volume of the observation group was more than that of the control group, the prothrombin time (PT) of the observation group was longer than that of the control group (P < 0.05). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that: cirrhosis (OR^ = 2.423, 95%CI: 1.124 ~ 5.224), shock (OR^ = 6.897, 95%CI: 1.487~31.995), endoscopic active bleeding (OR^ = 2.604, 95%CI: 1.109 ~ 6.118), Forrest grading of Ia to Ib (OR^ = 2.494, 95%CI: 1.162 ~ 5.354), level of blood hemoglobin ≤ 90 g/L (OR^ = 5.270, 95%CI: 1.797~15.442), level of blood platelet ≤ 100 × 109/L (OR^ = 5.018, 95%CI: 1.733 ~ 14.531), bleeding volume > 189.61 mL (OR^ = 1.025, 95%CI: 1.016 ~ 1.034), PT > 15.99 s (OR^ = 1.996, 95%CI: 1.618 ~ 2.460) were both risk factors for rebleeding in UGIH patients after endoscopic treatment (P < 0.05). Regression equation model: logit (P) = -18.551 + cirrhosis × 0.885 + shock × 1.931 + endoscopic active bleeding × 0.957 + Forrest grading × 0.914+level of blood hemoglobin × 1.662 + level of blood platelet × 1.613+bleeding volume × 0.025 + PT × 0.691. The ROC curve for predicting rebleeding in UGIH patients after endoscopic treatment was plotted according to the diagnostic probability logit (P). When logit (P) > 0.30, the 95%CI was 0.891 ~ 0.955, and the diagnostic sensitivity and specificity were 88.66% and 83.15%, respectively. The area under the curve (AUC) value was 0.923.Conclusion The cirrhosis, shock, endoscopic active bleeding, Forrest grade Ia to Ib, level of blood hemoglobin ≤ 90 g/L, level of blood platelet ≤ 100 × 109/L, bleeding volume > 189.61 mL, and PT > 15.99 s are independent risk factors for rebleeding after endoscopic treatment in patients with UGIH. The model constructed based on this has high predictive value, which can be used clinically to provide personalized intervention and treatment for high-risk patients to reduce or avoid the occurrence of rebleeding.

    图1 UGIH患者内镜治疗后再出血的模型校正曲线Fig.1 Model calibration curve of rebleeding in UGIH patients after endoscopic treatment
    图2 Logistic回归模型预测UGIH患者内镜治疗后再出血的ROC curveFig.2 ROC curve of Logistic regression model predicting rebleeding after endoscopic treatment in patients with UGIH
    表 1 两组患者临床资料比较Table 1 Comparison of clinical data between the two groups
    表 2 UGIH患者内镜治疗后再出血的高危因素分析Table 2 Analysis of high-risk factors for rebleeding after endoscopic treatment in patients with UGIH
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莫琼,刘国正,张可,梁飞飞,李松明.上消化道出血患者内镜治疗后再出血的影响因素分析[J].中国内镜杂志,2025,31(7):37-44

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  • 收稿日期:2025-04-17
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-08-06
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